Energy prices update

Posted on

November 14, 2017

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Potential effects on the energy markets include US and Saudi Arabia criticism of Iran in allegedly aiding Yemen militants and the potential for more sanctions that could affect Iranian oil production and increase prices.

This could lift US shale exports and help OPEC’s global balancing measures. Overall, energy price trends are upwards.

According to SSE analyst Tim Partridge, the rising NBP (National Balancing Point) market took UK power with it last week with day-on-day gains ending with higher prices, although Monday’s high renewable output and returning French nuclear availability led to large losses on Monday’s baseload, and slight losses on December 2017 and January 2018 base contracts respectively. Seasons nudged up as coal for 2018 gained $1.90/tonne in Friday’s session.

Week 47 offer is £1.35/MWh with some risk from weather and renewable forecast. Wind generation could hit 6GW before dropping off into Wednesday and Tuesday’s product is down 30p against the closing assessment. Front month, quarter and seasons are yet to trade, but are valued around their close levels.

Gas prices along the curve gained on Friday as bullishness continued; increased demand due to colder weather a factor, adding over 2.00p/th to the day-ahead contract, while the curve was lifted by rising coal value by around half a penny, as was the front month.

Oil dipped 19¢ on Friday as US companies increased weekly drilling activity by the most seen over the past six months. However, the trend reis still upwards and January 18 product finished above the $63.50/bbl mark.

SSE reports: “Range-bound around that level, crude is relatively flat while market data is highly anticipated this week to see just how much talks of extending the OPEC-led production cuts can continue to lift the market, while operational impacts of building inventories, lower demand from China and increased US shale production”.

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